The Media Manipulation Miscalculation – Steven Menking

Posted on October 24, 2016 by ccpastormike

With 16 days – and about 160 news cycles – remaining until the presidential election, if you look at the news and data coming out of establishment media outlets you get the sense that the election of Hillary Clinton is a foregone conclusion. Yet, if you look at polling data on alternative outlets or even look at social media traffic you get the sense that Donald Trump will win in a landslide. The discrepancies in the information trends dictate that someone must be wrong. Unfortunately, without the tendency or the wherewithal to investigate, potential voters are being bombarded with headline numbers that are rapidly absorbed as indisputable fact due to repetition.

We should never forget the effect that confirmation bias has on this process. Whatever you want to believe, there is a way to manipulate data in order to justify your belief. I participated in a version of this ‘goal seeking’ back when I was an investment banking analyst. Rather than build up the assumptions and properly model out the most likely outcomes based on fundamentals and probabilities, a range of numbers would be deemed acceptable and then the calculations would be performed in a way to justify those numbers. The objective was to win clients. A valuation figure presented to the company needed to be as high as possible without being perceived as unreasonable. Once we won the business and as reality set in more and more, the valuation numbers invariably came down because they didn’t meet the rosy forecasts we had advertised in order to gain the business in the first place.

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Around The Bend – Steven Menking

Posted on October 22, 2016 by ccpastormike

With the eyes of the country on whatever the trending trending propaganda is today – most likely accusations of Russia presented without evidence and how Donald Trump is the destroyer of American democracy based on his unwillingness to rule out conceding the election should Hillary Clinton win – I can’t help but express my weariness with all of the nonsense and how many still give any credibility to people and institutions that incessantly lie right to their faces.

I didn’t watch the debate on Wednesday, but I was a bit taken aback to hear Hillary Clinton revealing to the entire world the previously top secret timeline from nuclear launch order to actual nuclear launch. However, I was much less surprised to see that nothing immediately happened as a result even though something certainly should have.

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Standing at the Precipice : How We Got Here and How Cold War 2.0 Will Play Out – Outlaw Patriot

Posted on October 17, 2016 by ccpastormike

Over the past month as tensions have mounted between the United States and Russia, one thing has stood out in my mind. I conducted more than 20 arms control inspections across the former Soviet Union, Central Asia, and Europe, working alongside NATO partner military members as well as members from Belarus, Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan. At the conclusion of all those missions, there was always a dinner between the two teams, usually with a spread fit for a king and plenty of toasts (the people of the former Soviet states love to make toasts, and they are masters of putting together words for such events; we had to train for this practice, both in building up our alcohol tolerance, but also in order to pronounce our own toasts, as one side will make a toast, then the next, beginning with the highest ranking and proceeding to the lowest ranking). The first toast would usually be to the conclusion of the mission, and in good Soviet fashion, the second would be announced with a quick statement of “between the first and second, a bullet should not pass”. The third, depending on the company, would either be to the fallen or to women. And eventually, before the night was done, a toast would be made that those collected at the table should never meet one another on opposite sides of the battlefield. Often times, this toast would be preceded by words of how there is a brotherhood of military men. No matter what country we serve, we have in common that we have all taken on the duty to serve the people of our country. That we have put aside our own lives in order to answer the call of service, and that takes a special kind of person – that no matter what uniform or flag we wear, we are all cut from the same cloth, and therefore are a part of this brotherhood. And that is what comes to mind as our two nations stand on the precipice of war – all of those toasts done that we might not end up on opposite sides of the battlefield.

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If God Be For Us, Who Can Be Against Us? – Steven Menking

Posted on October 15, 2016 by ccpastormike

And when the servant of the man of God was risen early, and gone forth, behold, an host compassed the city both with horses and chariots. And his servant said unto him, Alas, my master! how shall we do? And he answered, Fear not: for they that be with us are more than they that be with them. And Elisha prayed, and said, Lord, I pray thee, open his eyes, that he may see. And the Lord opened the eyes of the young man; and he saw: and, behold, the mountain was full of horses and chariots of fire round about Elisha.
2 Kings 6:15-17

Lord God, we are hearing of wars and rumors of wars. Your word tells us that this must surely come to pass eventually, but Lord we also know that we have an advocate at the throne of grace: Jesus Christ – your son and our Savior. Lord we pray in the name of Jesus that your angelic armies would be dispatched to thwart the plans of our enemy to steal, to kill, and to destroy. God we thank you for your mercy, grace, and forgiveness. You are good and holy and true and righteous and just.

Lord give us the hearts, the strength, and the faith to continue in prayer to intercede for our families, our nation, and our world. Jesus we are aware of the besetting dangers that have been unleashed and stand poised to bring great harm. God you are the Creator of all things. We pray in Jesus name for your mercy and for your protection in the midst of chaos and danger.

Your word teaches us that we should fear no evil. Lord we pray that you would write those words in our hearts. You are victorious Jesus and nothing can snatch us out of your hand. We give you glory and praise and worship for you are worthy. Destroy the works of the enemy. Bring confusion into their camp. Pour out your Holy Spirit on your people. Protect us and defend us Lord as we rely on you rather than on our own strength and understanding.

Nevertheless Lord God let your will be done. Whatever it takes for the sake of your glory, your name, and your kingdom. Jesus be exalted in our lives and in our nation once again. Have mercy on us Lord and bring us to the place of repentance, healing, and restoration. We pray in the name of Jesus for the discernment and wisdom of your Holy Spirit. God keep us from being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Make a way for us. Open our ears and make us sensitive to your leading in this hour.

God we pray that everyone would be given an honest opportunity to accept your son Jesus as Savior. Show everyone who you are and what you have done, that multitudes would come to know you and those that would willingly reject you do it knowingly and not under the deception of the age. Jesus bring us a moment of utter clarity of purpose and meaning.

Lord protect us and strengthen us. Holy Spirit imbue us with the faith that we need to endure and to proclaim the name of Jesus in this generation. Keep us safe in the storm. We cling to you Jesus and stand firm on the rock of the foundation of our faith knowing that your name is above all names. You are the King of Kings and the Lord of Lords Jesus.

In your name we pray for mercy, protection, and encouragement in this hour. Amen.

This article originally posted on The Amateur Society here – https://amateursociety.wordpress.com/2016/10/13/if-god-be-for-us-who-can-be-against-us/ on October 13, 2016